Those who follow me over Twitter would’ve noticed, I’ve lost out on love with Mohammad Shami a touch. It’s a disappointing change within for someone I once hailed as India’s most talent paceman. Maybe it’s got to do with expectations, but the level at which he’s operated as a Test match fast bowler doesn’t suffice for me.
With 180 wickets at an average of 27.36 after 49 Tests, you may wonder what I’m on about here? But dig deeper into those numbers, a true picture of Shami emerges. As the title indicates, I intend to bring Shami’s overseas record under greater scrutiny. But through the course of this write-up, I’ll also be exploring why Shami flourishes so much in Indian conditions but is dispensable to the team’s cause abroad going forward.
Shami has had two rounds of overseas tours under his belt now, one in his infancy as a Test match bowler in 2013–15 and the other as a more accomplished member of the attack in the 2018–19 season. In that first cycle, he averaged 42.13 for 36 wickets in 10 Tests. The wicket-cost was marginally higher in South Africa (43.83), and while it did come down in New Zealand (35.10) and Australia (35.80), there was a significant jump in England (73.20). Quite disappointing numbers, no doubt, but it would be harsh to go after Shami for his performances at a time when he had just transitioned to the top-level game. So we shall focus our energies on his record during the next cycle that saw him travel back to those countries as a bowler grown in experience and reputation.
On return, Shami bagged 52 wickets at a more impressive collective average of 28.46 in 14 Tests. In South Africa, the wicket-cost came down significantly to 17.06, and though it remained poor in England (38.87) and New Zealand (36.60), there were scalps at 26.18 per piece in India’s famous 2–1 Test series win in Australia. At first glance, the improvement feels legit and promises an upward curve. We would, however, be grossly mistaken thinking along those lines.
In South Africa, where India lost 2–1, Shami averaged a horrible 50.33 in each of the first innings in Cape Town, Centurion and Johannesburg for just 3 wickets with an expansive economy rate of 3.51. In England, again, conditions that couldn’t be more suited to fast bowling, Shami’s first-innings average stood at 37.66 for just 9 wickets while conceding 3.36 runs per over. In Australia, outside his 7-fer in Perth which basically came when the Test had already been lost, Shami was largely a support cast, not a lead player and struggled in the first-innings, taking just 5 wickets across 4 Tests with an average of 44.6. Upon return to New Zealand too earlier this year, he had another lacklustre series.
In the concerned cycle, Shami had a collective first-innings average of 40.22 across 14 Tests with only 22 wickets, basically he was on a hiding when the team needed their pacemen to set-up Test matches abroad. In the second innings, Shami returned with an average of 19.83 but those wickets only bettered his numbers, they didn’t help India’s cause, for those games had already been lost in the vital first half where he was found wanting.
In 9 Tests played together in this period, Shami (average 29.25) came across as no match for Ishant Sharma (20.77) and Jasprit Bumrah (21.91), who were both more consistently threatening for oppositions, including in the first-innings where the gap only increased with Shami averaging a disastrous 59.88, as opposed to Bumrah (20.04) and Ishant (17.21) who held their class. It’s clear that India’s third pacer has been letting his team down.
Used after the new-ball pair is done with their first spells, the third pacer is an extremely crucial part of the attack. On his performance depends largely whether the pressure is sustained and there aren’t easier runs scored from an end while the attack’s leaders are resting before resuming duties.
In India’s case, it’s now clear that Shami hasn’t played his role to acceptable levels. In fact, it wouldn’t be too far-fetched to suggest he has been one of the major reasons behind India’s failures as they still remain only occasional winners abroad. In times when Test match batting conditions are tough and runs are at premium, no team could afford to carry a struggling fast bowler, who is proven more harmful than two technically incompetent batsmen put together would be.
But one may wonder, why this hasn’t been spoken about in the public yet? It’s here a fallacy of how we tend to watch cricket matches comes to the fore. A batsman playing a false stroke and being dismissed first ball for a duck easily catches attention, but not a bowler who has gone through a spell without landing the ball on the spot. Such spells are more likely to cost a team the match than if one of their top-six batters doesn’t disturb the scorers.
In the Indian context, it must be especially difficult to put the scanner on Shami, given there is this huge build-up and media-talk behind the attack up our sleeves now. While emotional fans can lack perspective because of the paucity of fast bowling riches before, the Indian cricket system and those with its welfare at heart, shouldn’t let these things slip their attention.
While Shami has been a huge failure in the all-crucial, decisive first-half of Test matches abroad, his second-innings numbers are a case study in themselves. In those 9 Tests played alongside Bumrah and Ishant, Shami did better in the third and fourth innings, averaging 19.03 for his wickets, while the other two had a slight drop, taking them at 24.25 and 27.58, respectively.
Those numbers may leave you wondering what Shami does so differently from one half of the other within a Test match? In my eyes, however, it is the very fact that Shami doesn’t do anything different that has formed such a huge gap in his numbers and gave him a sadly raved-over tag of ‘second-innings’ bowler. While groomed in an environment historically ill-suited for fast bowling, Shami is perfectly designed as paceman for Indian conditions. Everything, from his judicious run-up to that locked-in seam position to his lengths, Shami is an Indian fast bowler to the core.
When Shami travels abroad, he operates with the same length that offer him uneven bounce on Indian tracks irrespective of the innings. The ball behaves uniquely on any given spot of a surface. The area from where Shami fetches his wickets in India, it renders him ineffective abroad because the ball bounces true and doesn’t skid through low. In the second innings, when an overseas track has deteriorated to a degree, Shami’s lengths and line targetting the stump make him productive to an extent. But by that time, as he fails in the first-innings, the Indian team are already behind in the contest and Shami’s wickets are proven unimpactful.
In a specific detail of the ‘Shami length’, there is this patch just around the short of good length area, a relatively indecisive part of the surface for the batsman who has to decide whether to be on the front or the backfoot, and do it quickly. In India, despite the excessive use of clay in pitch-making, that patch not only plays uneven but also stays low. Couple this with Shami’s deceiving pace and you have a dangerous prospect for the batsmen, especially those coming from abroad. But the same Englishmen and the Australians, trained over the years at first-class level, are able to survive this length and even score of it when the ball stays true in their own territory. When that happens, the other fascets of Shami’s bowling stand exposed.
Suddenly, Shami is forced to change his line, not length, but line to more the outside off channel. This adjustment, we shall keep reminding us, isn’t easy for a bowler so used to targeting the stumps and look for the bowleds and the LBWs at home. Once out of comfort, ‘that seam position’ also becomes a problem.
That seam position. The world raves over its straightness, how it helps Shami land the ball consistently on the seam and extract movement off a length. I’ve argued for some time, though, that this exact closed-in seam position holds back Shami the bowler in overseas conditions. Shami can’t swing the ball conventionally because of it and though it allows him to extract seam movement, at ‘the Shami length’ overseas batsman are able to negotiate that seam movement. An ideal seam position is one that allows a bowler to adjust to different conditions. Once grabbing hold of the semi-new dukes ball in West Indies, Bumrah knew he can’t retain his hit the deck style and must pitch it up to swing the ball. And so, out came this little curved last-minute seam-pivot which didn’t just allow him to take the ball away from the right-handers but also swing the ball back into the lefties. He ended with 13 wickets in 2 Tests at just 9.23 while Shami’s tally was a less than satisfactory 9 at 17.77 against one of the weakest batting line-ups in contemporary Test cricket.
Shami’s seam position works in ODI cricket where he has a fantastic record, without never being dependable at the death. Modern-day limited-overs batsmen are so used to ball coming down in straight lines off the pitch that any sort of seam movement leaves them vulnerable. And, of course, it works in Tests in Indian conditions.
In India, Shami’s 14 Tests against traditional top 8 sides have seen him take 53 wickets at an astonishing average of 22.09, which is better than Ravichandran Ashwin (24.06) and Ravindra Jadeja (28.56) in those games. This record doesn’t take a beating when we account for only the first-innings where even the Indian tracks are at their truest. Of course, fast bowlers only operate at the ‘right times’ on surfaces here, but it’s undeniable that if you throw the ball to Shami, he gives you wickets in India.
And so, I believe it’ll be best for Shami and for India, that he only plays in home conditions. It’ll also prolong Shami’s years at the highest level as he looks to advance his case in white-ball cricket too. But overseas, given the fact that India as a cricket nation still has a lot of ground to cover, there should be no place for him in that attack. The selectors and the management should closely observe Shami’s performances during what will be his third Test series in Australia. If nothing changes, once Ishant is back for the tour of England, they should give him and Bumrah a more robust third overseas pace partner for that series and beyond.
(All numbers from ESPNcricinfo’s ‘statsguru’)
