Unlike Kohli, Why Shami’s “luck” hasn’t evened out in England
The experienced pacer tends to drive an ‘Unlucky Shami’ narrative but his persistent struggles in UK reflect on a cricketer short of conditions-based skills.
Virat Kohli couldn’t have been more unlucky on the disastrous 2014 tour of England. According to ESPNcricinfo’s ‘ball-by-ball’ data, the modern-day Indian great lost his 10 wickets over five Tests in just 54 false shots. Kohli’s persistent struggles during the tour versus James Anderson and Stuart Broad and their masterful use of conventional swing outside off got amplified to such extent that it remained a blot on his career at the time even as the player retained a dominating figure elsewhere.
No runs in Australia, South Africa and New Zealand, either side of the mid-summer horrors, would absolve the giant of the monkey on his back, for they kept talking about ‘England?’ and questioned the man’s greatness until he would ultimately conquer the final frontier. The narrative took its toll on even the usually unruffled and stubborn Kohli, who revisited his technique and adjusted his stance to a more side-on degree while adding a debatable frontfoot push to his game before coming back on England shores.
As ‘Cricviz’ mentioned here, Kohli would go on to establish average interception points or distance of connection from the stumps of upto 2.33 metres during his renaissance trip to the country in 2018. The corresponding number in 2014 stood at 1.88 metres. This could’ve been the difference between him cutting down the degree of swing and reinforcing command against the historic English ploy to being drawn into a risky prod outside the off-stump and making the long walk back.
But the luck factor perhaps held a more decisive hand. The same batter who averaged 5.4 false shots per dismissal during the 2014 trip went on to record two centuries and aggregate 593 runs over 10 innings despite 200 false shots in the toughest batting conditions during the peak of the ‘bowling era’, as ESPNcricinfo revealed. In cricketing discourse: that was Virat Kohli’s luck evening out.
When fortunes eventually align to cricketing logic, it is the skill and the ability of a cricketer coming to the fore. Improvements made in technique accentuated Kohli’s luck in the middle, for he began surviving balls he would otherwise edge to the slips. A cricketer wouldn’t be unlucky to endure a bad run over multiple trips to a country, it would be a reflection of the skill level he is operating with. Think of Mohammad Shami!!
Kohli’s exceptional 2018 campaign was equally brittle and frustrating for India’s designated third-seamer. In action behind the prime duo of Ishant Sharma and Jasprit Bumrah, Shami was initially criticised for being an erratic, costly first change, who released the pressure and couldn’t maximise the best of perfect bowling conditions in his favour. The seamer faced the brunt for recording his 16 wickets at a pedestrian 38.66 apiece.
Cricviz, however, dispelled the narrative and transformed it completely in the bowler’s favour with one great piece, screengrabs from which are taken below with due credits given for more immediate viewing and understanding. Cricviz has records for ball-tracking data from Tests played since 2006. According to the leading data-based company, Shami induced 26.2% worth of false shots — amounting to plays-and-misses and misdirected strokes — from English batters during the 2018 series — the most by any bowler from either side. Since the advent of ball-tracking, only four bowlers with a minimum of 600 balls bowled in a series had induced such a high % of false shots. Reward? An expensive and match-losing average approaching 40.
Shami didn’t deserve such alarming lack of fortune on that trip. Cricviz’s ‘expected wickets model’, based on ball-tracking data to preempt the average end outcome for specific lengths and lines bowled, insisted the experienced seamer should’ve gotten at least seven more wickets to enjoy a tally of 23 scalps for the quality of the balls he delivered.
The misfortunes of 2018 tend to derive the overall narrative on Mohammad Shami the Indian speedster and his career record in England ever since Ben Jones came up with the revealing piece talked about above. The same esteemed writer had traced Kohli’s UK revival and highlighted insights and factors to the backdrop of his luck evening out.
But here’s a thing: Unlike Kohli, Shami’s supposed luck hasn’t evened out in England despite being part of two more trips to the UK. He still averaged a horrible 34.22 in near-perfect bowling conditions for seamers over four Tests played in 2021 in England, including the final of the World Test Championship (WTC). When he returned to complete the Covid-impacted Pataudi Trophy in Edgbaston early summer last year, the seamer’s England record only worsened to average a catastrophic 40.52 over 13 Tests played since 2014.
Even Cricviz’s ‘expected wickets’ model suggested of a bowler “who got what he deserved” and wouldn’t come to his saving this time. Shami would not earn one extra scalp to his eventual tally as per the model, taking into account the lengths and lines he delivered. A fact that would’ve thrown egg on the ‘Unlucky Shami’ narrative, especially when he got belted for match figures of 142/2 at 3.83 an over against England’s ‘Bazball’ in Birmingham.
That the luck evened out in Kohli’s case but didn’t with Shami reflects directly on his skill as a bowler, and specifically the skills required to succeed in conditions in the UK where conventional swing, in and out against the right-hander, remains a decisive ploy to succeed for quicks. For all his unrelenting accuracy and zeal, James Anderson would be half an English great if he wasn’t a master of swinging the ball both ways.
Shami’s problems are bolstered by his natural dead-straight seam, talked about previously, too, by this writer, which plagues on conventional swing, for the historic art requires the pacers to tilt the seam one way, be it curving from mid-on to first slip or mid-off to fine-leg, and get it to release full-pitched without losing steam to attract the cover drives and defensive prods for edges.
A skill that Ishant Sharma imbibed astutely with stronger, flexible wrists behind the ball to enjoy an unprecedented streak at the back half of his career. Bumrah followed suit to his senior partner from the very beginning of his maiden English trip and has taken 37 wickets at 26.77 over nine Tests in the country. No bad luck would stop Ishant and Bumrah from comfortably outbowling Shami on that 2018 trip.
Over the past two years, Shami has tried to address his seam position to make it a more varying threat in all conditions by loosening the grip and focusing more on releasing the ball rather than jamming it onto the deck — a ploy he uses expertly on Indian tracks, especially when the clay-based pitches gradually wear off to offer low, uneven bounce at skiddy pace from the indecisive good length area.
But since the pacer’s longstanding modus operanda remains to bowl the shorter length, there could be no immediate impact felt of this developed tweak in Edgbaston last season where aggressive English batters would jam their frontfoot and hit him through the line. The one time India badly needed Shami to step-up and shoulder arms with Bumrah to hide the flaws of the whimsical Mohammed Siraj and the erratic Shardul Thakur, he failed to be the match-winner for his side — a career theme that has stuck by the pacer abroad.
It needs to change, it will have to change come The Oval this week against Australia if India are to compete over five days to an opposition pace attack they are no match to in absence of Bumrah, an all-conquering force, capable of not only destroying batting line-ups at his end but also bolstering the impact at the other end by consistently inducing false shots and misjudgement. Bumrah doesn’t just create his own luck, but makes other bowlers luckier with his presence.
Shami can’t realistically be expected to do a Bumrah. No one can. But the Indian team need him to take charge of their overseas pace battery for once, allow Siraj and Umesh to play to their attacking strengths and produce himself a performance befitting of all the narratives and perceptions that run in his favour. Maybe the ‘luck’ might also smile on him then.
